I recently read a great statistical preview of the upcoming season on . Definitely check it out for an interesting read. Essentially, using some Pomeroy-level formulas, which I am going to take at face-value, the mastermind behind T14GT generated some very intriguing numbers and projections based on player-level and team-level statistics from past seasons. The resulting formulas generated the following projected win totals for 2011-2012:
My initial reaction to these standings is that the order seems to generally fall in line with how I see this season proceeding. Nevertheless, I wanted to chime in with some quick thoughts on the projections and where I see things playing out differently since it”s tough to quantify the impact that a great recruiting class or a departing coach might have on a team. I”ll take the above projections to be each team”s season win total over/under and go team-by-team with my picks.
Harvard- 12.0 wins (IHO says: right on) Harvard is everyone”s runaway favorite and rightfully so, given that they return everyone and add the league”s best recruiting class. Not much to argue with there.
Yale- 8.5 wins (IHO says: over) This Yale team is set to turn some heads this year. I was excited to see the projections backing up what I”ve seen on the court; this team may be the only squad capable of taking down the Crimson this year. We saw last year how evenly these teams matched up and how seriously they take the rivalry in two classic battles. Both home teams narrowly prevailed in “10-“11 and we can expect the same type of thrilling contests this year, as Yale has added some serious height in their incoming freshman class (6″11″ Will Childs-Klein, 6″7″ Matt Townsend, and 6″ 7” name-of-the-year candidate Armani Cotton) to back up Mangano and Kreisberg. This year though, if we”re lucky, the winner of The (Basketball) Game may also determine the league champion.
Princeton- 8.4 wins (IHO says: under) Princeton clocks in with between 8 and 9 wins in this projection, good for third in the league, I don”t see them putting it all together that quickly. Losing Mavraides and Maddox is a big blow for the defending champs, but losing a head coach is devastating. It takes more than a summer for a head coach to lay down his system, and I just can”t see the Tigers responding this quickly with a top 2 or 3 finish. Not saying it”s impossible, but in a league that relies heavily on good coaching and scheming, it would be a remarkable accomplishment for Princeton to compete for a league title again this year. I have them landing in the middle of the pack with a .500 record.
Penn- 6.8 wins (IHO says: over) Penn is a team with a void to fill with the departure of Jack Eggleston. Despite that, the trio of Miles Cartwright, Zack Rosen, and Tyler Bernardini will see how far they can lead this year”s Penn team. Those three players combine to make up as good a backcourt as you”ll find in the Ivy League this year, but they can”t do it alone. It”ll be very interesting to see how quickly Penn can bring their front-court up to speed. The Quakers might be able to get away with their lack of depth on the offensive end, but established big men like Mangano and Wright are surely licking their chops looking at the freshmen and bench players they”ll be matched up with against Penn. Still, IHO thinks the terrific trio of guards will be enough to take down the bottom half of the league and steal a game or two against the big boys.
Cornell- 6.3 wins (IHO says: under) Chris Wroblewski put the Big Red on his back last year, shooting the lights out and leading Cornell to a respectable finish in the middle of the pack, one year removed from the team”s legendary Sweet 16 run. Consider that Cornell had an unbelievable 13 players make at least one start last year, and you”ll realize that this is a team that is still figuring out its identity. We know they can shoot the ball, but there are too many question marks to think they can contend with the top echelon this year. IHO wants to see how the Big Red freshman class fares in non-conference play before committing to a number, but for now, we think Cornell has a lot to prove.
Columbia- 5.6 wins (IHO says: under) As is often the case in this league, the lack of an effective big man presence inside will leave Columbia relying on their guard play. Last year, Noruwa Agho proved himself as one of the league”s most explosive scorers–though T14GT recently put forth a compelling argument that he may be the . Brian Barbour”s quickness on the ball will be helpful and his 2:1 assist to turnover ratio is impressive, but it won”t result in many points unless the Lions have added a few knockdown shooters. Last year, Columbia finished dead last in 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting. Besides that, over 72% of their shots last year came from Agho, Ampim and Brian Grimes. Agho found a way to score–albeit by putting up a lot of shots, but Ampim and Grimes clocked in far below average on KenPom”s Offensive Efficiency index. It”s simple: the Lions will need to find a way to get better shots and knock them down if they want to improve upon last year”s finish.
Brown- 5.5 wins (IHO says: over) It might surprise some people, but there”s a lot to be excited about in Providence. The Bears return Rookie of the Year point guard Sean McGonagill who will most likely start alongside transfer Steve Albrecht, who sat out last year after an impressive freshman campaign at Toledo. The Bears also return Tucker Halpern on the wing who showed signs of brilliance last year, including a 29 point performance in a near-upset of Harvard last year. Dockery Walker returns from a great freshman campaign in which he proved he was capable of being a much-needed inside presence, an energy guy, and a monster on the defensive boards. With the addition of a solid freshman class, including Brazilian center 6″9″ Rafael Maia, the Bears have the ability to make the jump into the top half for the first time since the days of Mullery.
Dartmouth- 2.8 wins (IHO says: under) The Big Green have only won two games in the past two years, and they didn”t have a single player average double figures in points per game. That being said, they return Jabari Trotter who shot the ball over 40% from deep last season, as well as R.J. Griffin who put up 20 against Harvard last season. The Big Green will be counting on a solid class of freshmen to step in and contribute immediately if they want to be competitive in the league this year. Their top priority this offseason should be holding onto the ball–Dartmouth doesn”t return a single player with an assist-to-turnover ratio over 1.
The Ivy League has changed substantially in the past five years. Ancient 8 teams are beating BCS schools in non-conference play, and two years ago, Cornell went to a Sweet 16. Last year, Princeton continued to help support the idea that Ivy Leaguers can play with the big boys when they almost beat Kentucky in the first round. The reason for this change is that Ivy League recruiting has improved drastically over the past five years. Big time players are now looking at Ivy League schools as legitimate Division-I options. As the director of the National All-Academic Camp, I get a chance to see many of these players each summer and I have noticed that the Ivy League prospects have improved every year over the past 5 years. We are seeing better athletes and more complete players each year who have grades and SAT scores to match.
Here is the breakdown of the Ivy League’s 2015 recruiting classes.
Head Coach: Jesse Agel
Incoming Players: Rafael Maia 6’9” (Maine Central Institute), Christian Gore 6’2” (El Paso, TX), Joe Sharkey 6’2” (Northfield Mount Hermon), Taylor Wright 6’5” (Episcopal Academy), Longji Yiljep 6’5” (Westwon, PA), Jon Schmidt 6″7″ (Friends School, MD)
Recruiting Grade: A-
Analysis: Agel scored a major recruit during his first two years in Tucker Halpern (Class of 2013) and Sean McGonagill (Class of 2014). I’m picking Rafael Maia as the hands-down favorite for Rookie of the Year in the Ivy League. The 6’9” Brazilian is a BIG TIME presence on the defensive end and a freak athlete. Maia is an ACC/Big East level talent who will be one of the most talented shot blockers and rebounders the Ivy League has ever seen. Joe Sharkey will add backcourt stability, which the Bears need desperately. Sharkey is a high IQ, pass-first point guard who makes all the right plays. Taylor Wright, the son of Villanova coach Jay Wright, will be a nice addition. He averaged over 17 ppg last year and has a reputation of being able to stretch the defense. Christian Gore is a 2 star recruit form El Paso who should also help provide backcourt depth.
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School, NJ), Noah Springwater 6’3” (University HS, San Francisco), Skylar Scrivano 6’9” (Peddie School, NJ), Cory Osetkowski 6″10″ (Canyon Crest HS, CA), Darius Stevens 6″6″ (La Lumiere HS, IN)
Recruiting Grade: C
Analysis: There wasn’t a lot of pop in this 2015 class for Coach Smith, but he’s got a solid group of role players nonetheless. Scrivano and Rosenberg will
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add front court depth. Scrivano has a reputation for being a terrific shot blocker, which should help the Lions in the paint.
Head Coach: Bill Courtney
Incoming Players: Galal Cancer 6’2” (Christian Brothers Academy), Dave LaMore 6’9” (Dexter HS, MI), Devin Cherry 6’3” (Meriden, MS), Shonn Miller 6″7″ (St. Ignatius HS, OH), Nenad Tomic 6″7″ (North Royalton HS, OH), Deion Giddens 6″9″ (Willow Canyon HS, AZ)
Recruiting Grade: B
Analysis: Galal Cancer will prove to be a major score online casino for Cornell, as he was a recruiting steal for the Big Red. Cancer who played at Christian Brothers Academy and for the Nike sponsored AAU club, Albany City Rocks, will be a prolific scorer in the Ivy League. He is also great in transition, which will be perfect for Coach Courtney’s style of play. LaMore will add a great post presence and will likely be a starter at some point during his career. Devin Cherry was an intriguing get for Courtney as he is from Mississippi, which is not heavily recruited by his league foes. Cherry will be an athletic hybrid perimeter player who will need to add muscle to his 170 lb. frame in order to be a major presence in the Ivy League.
Edit: Dave LaMore”s name was misspelled in a previously posted version of this article.
Head Coach: Paul Cormier
Incoming Players: John Golden 6’6” (Northfield Mount Hermon), Will McConnell 6’6” (Atherton, CA), Kirill Savolainen 6’5” (VA Episcopal), Mack McKearney 6’2” (Okemos, MI), Gabas Maldunas 6’8” (Holderness School), Jvonte Brooks 6’6” (Northfield)
Recruiting Grade: B
Analysis: Cormier and his staff did a great job overall in this class. They added depth and pulled the trigger on a few players early, who will all be great additions. One such player is John Golden, who many Ivy and Patriot League schools wish they had offered earlier. Golden is a big guard who can really stretch the floor with his shooting range and is a fearless competitor. His prep schoool teammate at Northfield Mount Hermon, Jvonte Brooks, is a tremendous athlete who will need to continue to develop his skills to be an impact player. Maldunas is an interesting player as he is a big, skilled 4-man who is deceptively athletic. McConnell will add length and depth at the small forward position. If he gets tougher, he will be a very good player for the Big Green. There are no stars in this group, but an overall great collection.
Head Coach: Tommy Amaker
Incoming Players: Max Hooper 6’5” (Brewster Academy), Corbin Miller 6’2” (Brighton, UT), Steve Moundou-Missi 6’6” (Montverde Academy), Alex Nesbitt 6’7” (Univ of Chicago Laboratory HS), Wesley Saunders 6’5” (Winward Academy), Kenyatta Smith 6’8” (Flintridge Prep), Jonas Travis 6″6″ (De La Salle, MN)
Recruiting Class: A
Analysis: It looks like Amaker has struck gold again here with his 2015 class. In my opinion, he has had the best or second best recruiting class every year since he arrived in Cambridge. Steve Moundou-Missi is my dark horse pick for Rookie of the Year. The only thing holding him back is that he’s playing behind All-League players Kyle Casey and Keith Wright. Moundou-Missi is a monster athlete who will be a rebounding machine for the Crimson. Kenyatta Smith turned down offers from the Pac-10 and Big 10 to attend Harvard. His size and skill will help the Crimson’s already imposing interior. Max Hooper is a prolific sniper who will keep defenses honest and not allow for double teams. Wesley Saunders is another dynamic get, who will add a great scoring punch for the Crimson.
Head Coach: Jerome Allen
Incoming Players: Henry Brooks 6’8” (Miller Grove, GA), Simeon Espirit 6’6” (England), Keelan Carnes (Ireland), Cam Crocker 6’3” (Cypress, CA), Greg Louis 6’7” (Dwyer, FL), Patrick Lucas-Perry 5″11″ (Flint Powers HS, MI)
Recruiting Class: A-
Analysis: Penn has done a great job adding the front court depth they needed in 2015. Henry Brooks has a chance to be special and will be a difference maker for the Quakers over the next four years. Espirit and Carnes were prep teamates at Barking Abbey College in the UK. I have not seen either, but am told they will surprise many Ivy League fans this year with their ability. Lewis will challenge for time on an already talented Quaker team. Allen put together a great group here that will help keep the Quakers contenders for years to come.
Edit: Cam Crocker was erroneously referred to as Penn sophomore Cam Gunter in a previously posted version of this article.
Head Coach: Mitch Henderson
Incoming Players: Brian Fabrizius 6’11” (Kimball Union Academy), Bobby Garbade 6’10” (Seton Catholic), Denton Koon 6’7” (Liberty HS, MO), Clay Wilson 6’4” (Lincoln Christian, OK)
Recruiting Class: B
Analysis: Princeton filled some needs in 2015, but
didn’t add much star power. Luckily, the defending Ivy League Champs and first year head coach Mitch Henderson may not have to this year. Bobby Garbade was a 15 ppg, 11 rpg post in high school and is a very solid passer. His game will fit nicely with the Princeton system. Fabrizius, the other post, will add size, but will most likely not be a part of the rotation next year. Koon was his school’s validictorian, an all-state performer in high school, and has the ability to score in a variety of fashions. Clay Wilson is a prototypical Princeton guard who has some size and an uncanny ability to shoot the three and find the open man.
Head Coach: James Jones
Incoming Players: Will Childs-Klein 6’11” (Ladue HS, MO), Armani Cotton 6’7” (Northfield Mount Hermon), Javier Duren 6’4” (Oakville HS, MO), Brandon Sherrod 6’6” (Choate Rosemary Hall), Matt Townsend 6’7” (Horace Greeley)
Recruiting Class: A-
Analysis: This is a great class for James Jones. Brandon Sherrod will prove to be one of the best posts the Ivy League has ever seen. He is undersized, but strong as an ox and he knows how to score. Armani Cotton will add athleticism to the Bulldogs’ perimeter game. Cotton can attack the rim and shoot the three ball with the best of them. Childs-Klein will compliment Sherrod on the interior as a true center who can take up space and finish around the rim.
Greg Kristof is the Director of Hoop Mountain (www.hoopmountain.com), where he runs recruiting and exposure camps and tournaments for high school basketball players all over the country. He sees many of the players who move on to the Ivy League at the Hoop Mountain All-Academic Camp each summer.
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