Ivy League Tournament women’s semifinal preview: No. 3 Harvard vs. No. 2 Columbia

No. 2 Columbia (23-4, 12-2 Ivy) vs No. 3 Harvard (16-10, 9-5 Ivy), 7 p.m. or 30 minutes following 4:30 game (Princeton vs Penn), whichever is later (available on ESPN+) at Jadwin Gym 

Game #1, 1/14/23: Columbia (home) over Harvard, 82-56
Game #2, 2/17/23: Columbia over Harvard (home), 75-70

Princeton
Head Coach:

Megan Griffith (seventh year at Princeton; overall 94-75; Ivy 41-43; one regular season championship; 2022-23 Ivy Coach of the Year)

Starting Lineup:
Abbey Hsu (junior guard; 33.8 mpg, 17.6 ppg, 41.2% FG, 78.0% FT, 3.9 rpg, 2.1 apg); Ivy League First Team
Kaitlyn Davis (senior forward; 27.3 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 52.5% FG, 72.4% FT, 9.6 rpg, 4.1 apg); Ivy League First Team
Jaida Patrick (senior guard; 31.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg, 38.5% FG, 61.4% FT, 5.1 rpg, 3.1 apg); Ivy League Second Team
Kitty Henderson (sophomore guard; 31.2 mpg, 8.9 ppg, 40.2% FG, 54.0% FT, 5.6 rpg, 3.2 apg); Ivy League Honorable Mention
Hannah Pratt (senior forward; 22.0 mpg, 8.8 ppg, 43.8% FG, 73.9% FT, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 apg); Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year

Key Reserve:
Carly Rivera (senior guard; 15.8 mpg, 1.8 ppg, 24.1% FG, 83.3% FT, 1.5 rpg, 3.0 apg); Academic All-Ivy League
Paige Lauder (junior guard/forward; 15.8 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 48.6% FG, 69.2% FT, 5.1 rpg, 0.4 apg)

Offense (conference stats, courtesy of Her Hoops Stats)
Points Per Game: 76.9 (#1 in Ivy)
Effective FG%: 48.7% (#3)
2FG%: 49.0% (#1)
3FG%: 32.1% (#3)
3Pt Rate: 30.1% (#4)
FT% 65.4% (#7)
FT Rate: 20.9% (#1)
Assist Rate: 65.1% (#1)
Turnover Rate: 17.4% (#2)
Steal Rate: 6.2% (#1)
Block Rate: 7.3% (#4)
Offensive Rebounding Rate: 41.0% (#1)
Possessions per 40 min: 72.9 (#1)

Defense
Points Per Game: 48.5 (#2)
Effective FG%: 40.6% (#2)
2FG%: 38.2% (#1)
3FG%: 39.4% (#2)
3Pt Rate: 28.9% (#3)
FT% 69.2% (#5)
FT Rate: 14% (#2)
Assist Rate: 52% (#2)
Turnover Rate: 21.2% (#4)
Steal Rate: 10.6% (#2)
Block Rate: 9.2% (#2)
Defensive Rebounding Rate: 73.0% (#1)
Total Rebounding Rate: 57.1% (#1)

Harvard
Head Coach:

Carrie Moore (1st year at Harvard; overall 16-10; Ivy 9-5)

Note: Both Moore and Griffith were Director of Basketball Operations (DBO) and Assistant Coaches for Princeton, under former head coach Courtney Banghart; Griffith was DBO in 2010-2012 and Assistant from 2012-2016, and Moore was DBO 2008-2010 and Assistant from 2016-2019 

Starting Lineup:
Harmoni Turner (sophomore guard; 32.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg, 37.0% FG, 82.4% FT, 5.7 rpg, 3.4 apg); Ivy League First Team; Academic All-Ivy
Lola Mullaney (junior guard; 34.8 mpg, 16.8 ppg, 47.3% FG, 81.8% FT, 3.0 rpg, 1.2 apg); Ivy League Second Team
Elena Rodriguez (sophomore guard; 31.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg, 55.9%, 60.7% FT, 9.1 rpg, 3.6 apg); Ivy League Honorable Mention
Mackenzie Forbes (senior guard; 28.8 mpg, 12.1 ppg, 42.0% FG, 71.4% FT, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg)
Saniyah Glenn-Bello (first-year guard; 23.9 mpg, 4.1 ppg, 37.3% FG, 80.0% FT, 3.9 rpg, 1.9 apg)

Key Reserves:
Maggie McCarthy (senior guard; 29.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg, 40.0% FG, 57.1% FT, 3.5 rpg, 2.4 apg)
Katie Krupa (first-year forward; 14.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 62.2% FG, 66.7% FT, 1.3 rpg, 0.8 apg)

Offense
Points Per Game: 62.8 (#4)
Effective FG%: 48.8% (#2)
2FG%: 45.3% (#5)
3FG%: 36.8% (#2)
3Pt Rate: 31.1% (#2)
FT% 65.7% (#6)
FT Rate: 16.1% (#3)
Assist Rate: 57.2% (#3)
Turnover Rate: 21.5% (#4)
Steal Rate: 10.6% (#5)
Block Rate: 7.4% (#5)
Offensive Rebounding Rate: 31.5% (#6)
Possessions per 40 min: 67.7 (#7)

Defense
Points Per Game: 60.8 (#4)
Effective FG%: 43.6% (#3)
2FG%: 43.2% (#4)
3FG%: 29.6% (#4)
3Pt Rate: 34.5% (#8)
FT% 70.1% (#6)
FT Rate: 10.7% (#1)
Assist Rate: 61.8% (#6)
Turnover Rate: 17.7% (#8)
Steal Rate: 8.0% (#7)
Block Rate: 8.8% (#3)
Defensive Rebounding Rate: 65.1% (#7)
Total Rebounding Rate: 49.7% (#6)

Columbia earned the program’s first Ivy championship last Saturday, defeating Cornell in front of a raucous standing-room-only crowd.  

Seventh-year coach Megan Griffith brings a deep and experienced team to Jadwin with only one thing on its mind: win the Ivy tournament and grab the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.  While the team is very offense-driven, it has developed a strong defense that can compete with most teams in the country.

Kaitlyn Davis, whom the coach often describes as a “unicorn,” ranks in the conference’s top 10 in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage.  While Davis can put up points from the inside, Abbey Hsu can get them from beyond the arc.  The Florida native is Columbia’s all-time sharpshooter from downtown and leads the nation with 3.44 three-pointers per game.   Jaida Patrick, in her second season with the Lions after transferring from Duke, is a double-digit scorer who has a knack for scoring her points in bunches.

Columbia’s defense is strong in all facets, with their rebounding being especially dominant.  The team is not only leading the Ivies in offensive and defensive boards, but its overall rebounding rate is 10th in the nation.

While the Lions are in the midst of a dream season, there have been times where the team has fallen victim to trap-game situations. 

In the early part of the year, they were beat by a Vanderbilt team that would go 12-19 on the year, before big games against Seton Hall and Iowa State.  Less than 24 hours after a huge win at Princeton, after finally taking down the reigning Ivy champs to grab a two-game lead in the standings, the Lions fell to Penn.  And last Saturday, they had to go to overtime against the seventh-place Big Red, which caused them to drop 10 spots in the NET and lose the No. 1 seed to the Tigers. 

Fortunately for the Lions, they have quickly regrouped from the losses at Vanderbilt and Penn to beat Seton Hall by seven on the road and Harvard by 26 at Levien Gymnasium.

Another immediate issue for Columbia is the status of starting forward Hannah Pratt, who missed the final game of the season.  Pratt is not only a solid offensive and defensive threat for the Lions but is the emotional leader of the team.  If she cannot come back at or close to 100% on Friday night, it will make things much harder for the Light Blue.

At Thursday’s press conference, Griffith said Pratt is ready to go for Friday’s semifinal.  She was wearing a brace on her left knee during the afternoon shootaround but appeared to be moving well.

Right now, ESPN lists Columbia as the Ivy automatic qualifier and a No. 10 seed, while Princeton is the last at-large team in the field and a No. 11 seed.  Experts feel both teams need one more win to secure their spots in the NCAA Tournament, while a semifinal loss for either team could be catastrophic.

While Harvard may be the number three seed and would have been the number four seed had Columbia dominated Cornell, they certainly have the talent and ability to win the Ivy tournament.

Last year, the Crimson, were led by a talented trio of offensive threats, Harmoni Turner, Lola Mullaney and McKenzie Forbes. This year, they have added Elena Rodriguez along to form a powerful quartet.

Turner finished the conference season within the top ten in points, rebounding, assists, steals and free throw percentage.  While her shooting percentages aren’t ideal (40.5% from two, 25% from three), she always has the green light and eventually gets her big totals.  Mullaney is a deadly shooter from three, who is third in the league in made threes per game (2.4) and three-point shooting percentage (39.1%). 

Forbes, in her second season on the court after transferring from Cal, was often thrust into playing the center spot in last year’s five-guard lineup.  With the emergence of Rodriguez, Forbes has been able to play more of a guard-forward role.  Back in her natural position, she is averaging double digits, while leading the league in three-point shooting percentage (47.5%) and sixth in made threes per game (2.1).

Rodriguez has been one of the league’s most improved players this year.  Last season, she started two games over 22 appearances with 9.2 minutes, two points and 1.6 rebounds per game.  This year, she started 15 games, including the last 10 Ivy contests, with 28.5 minutes, 11.5 points, and 7.2 rebounds per contest.  When just looking at her Ivy campaign, her numbers increased to 31.9 minutes, 13 points and 9.1 rebounds each night.

With the emergence of the 6-foot-2 forward from Spain, Harvard has its best interior presence since Jadyn Bush patrolled the middle in 2019.

The team has tightened up the defense under its new coach, and implementing a more traditional lineup has allowed the Crimson to record improvements in rebounding and opponent’s two-point field-goal shooting.  They still have a way to go before they get to the level of Columbia and Princeton, but they are heading in the right direction.

Without Turner or Rodriguez in the starting lineup for the first game between these two teams, the Lions thoroughly dominated on the glass, outrebounding Harvard 56-20.  While the Lions had a solid first half, going up by nine, they outscored the Crimson by 17 in the third quarter to put the game away.

The rematch was much closer, which was not a surprise, since Harvard tends to play better at Lavietes Pavilion. On this day, the Crimson were up by one at the break, but allowed the Lions to outscore them 26-11 to take charge.  Hsu netted a career-high 35 points, including 18 from beyond the arc. to pace the visitors.

For Friday, fans should expect plenty of offense from these two teams, with a large number of three pointers.  They should also expect to hear a vocal crowd from the Lions side, who packed Lavietes several times this year and were a strong presence at Lavietes in last year’s edition of Ivy Madness.

With the Lions’ experience, depth, defensive intensity, and ability to bounce back from suboptimal performances, they should be able to wrest control of the game.  However, if Harvard can hit its threes and prevent Columbia’s second-half run, it stands a good chance at playing on Saturday night and putting a scare into any teams on the NCAA bubble.  A loss by the Crimson will leave them hoping for a bid to the WNIT.