No. 1 Princeton (21-5, 12-2 Ivy) vs No. 4 Penn (17-10, 9-5 Ivy), Jadwin Gym, 4:30 p.m. (available on ESPN+)
Game #1, 1/16/23: Princeton (home) over Penn, 55-40
Game #2, 3/3/23: Princeton over Penn (home), 71-52
Princeton
Head Coach:
Carla Berube (fourth year at Princeton; overall 72-11; Ivy 40-2; three regular season championships, two Ivy Tournament championships; two-time Ivy Coach of the Year)
Starting Lineup:
Kaitlyn Chen (junior guard; 32.7 mpg, 16.4 ppg, 52.5% FG, 72.3% FT, 3.7 rpg, 3.7 apg); Ivy League Player of the Year, Ivy League First Team
Madison St. Rose (first-year guard; 26.3 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 41.6% FG, 85.7% FT, 2.9 rpg, 1.1 apg); Ivy League Rookie of the Year
Julia Cunningham (senior guard; 28.1 mpg, 8.9 ppg, 39.5% FG, 82.1% FT, 3.2 rpg, 3.1 apg); Ivy League Second Team
Grace Stone (senior guard; 28.8 mpg, 8.8 ppg, 38.3% FG, 81.3% FT, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 apg); Ivy League Second Team; Academic All-Ivy
Ellie Mitchell (senior forward; 25.1 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 44.9% FG, 38.1% FT, 10.2 rpg, 1.4 apg); Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year
Key Reserve:
Maggie Connolly (senior guard; 22.1 mpg, 3.4 ppg, 39.4% FG, 73.7% FT, 2.6 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Offense (conference stats, courtesy of Her Hoops Stats)
Points Per Game: 66.8 (#3 in Ivy)
Effective FG%: 48.2% (#4)
2FG%: 48.5% (#2)
3FG%: 31.6% (#4)
3Pt Rate: 22.7% (#8)
FT% 70.1% (#3)
FT Rate: 13.4% (#8)
Assist Rate: 55.2% (#6)
Turnover Rate: 17.1% (#1)
Steal Rate: 8.8% (#3)
Block Rate: 6.8% (#3)
Offensive Rebounding Rate: 38.1% (#2)
Possessions per 40 min: 66.1 (#8)
Defense
Points Per Game: 49.2 (#1)
Effective FG%: 39.1% (#1)
2FG%: 38.2% (#1)
3FG%: 27.3% (#1)
3Pt Rate: 29.1% (#5)
FT% 66.3% (#4)
FT Rate: 14.3% (#4)
Assist Rate: 52.5% (#3)
Turnover Rate: 24.9% (#1)
Steal Rate: 10.8% (#1)
Block Rate: 10.6% (#1)
Defensive Rebounding Rate: 70.7 % (#3)
Total Rebounding Rate: 45.4% (#2)
Penn
Head Coach:
Mike McLaughlin (13th year at Penn; overall 228-147; Ivy 119-62; four regular season championships, one Ivy Tournament championships; two-time Ivy Coach of the Year)
Starting Lineup:
Kayla Padilla (senior guard; 36.8 mpg, 20.1 ppg, 45.8% FG, 85.7% FT, 3.9 rpg, 3.2 apg); Ivy League First Team; Academic All-Ivy
Jordan Obi (junior forward; 35.2 mpg, 14.6 ppg, 51.6% FG, 73.8% FT, 9.3 rpg, 2.4 apg); Ivy League Second Team
Mandy McGurk (senior guard; 33.7 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 37.5% FG, 70.0% FT, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg)
Floor Toonders (junior forward; 32.6 mpg, 6.2 ppg, 50.0% FG, 18.2% FT, 7.5 rpg, 2.4 apg)
Simone Sawyer (first-year guard; 19.8 mpg, 4.8 ppg, 33.8% FG, 28.6% FT, 1.6 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Key Reserve:
Sydnei Caldwell (senior guard; 18.2 mpg, 4.2 ppg, 33.3% FG, 76.2% FT, 2.2 rpg, 0.8 apg)
Offense
Points Per Game: 62.8 (#4)
Effective FG%: 48.8% (#2)
2FG%: 45.3% (#5)
3FG%: 36.8% (#2)
3Pt Rate: 31.1% (#2)
FT% 65.7% (#6)
FT Rate: 16.1% (#3)
Assist Rate: 57.2% (#3)
Turnover Rate: 21.5% (#4)
Steal Rate: 10.6% (#5)
Block Rate: 7.4% (#5)
Offensive Rebounding Rate: 31.5% (#6)
Possessions per 40 min: 67.7 (#7)
Defense
Points Per Game: 60.8 (#4)
Effective FG%: 43.6% (#3)
2FG%: 43.2% (#4)
3FG%: 29.6% (#4)
3Pt Rate: 34.5% (#8)
FT% 70.1% (#6)
FT Rate: 10.7% (#1)
Assist Rate: 61.8% (#6)
Turnover Rate: 17.7% (#8)
Steal Rate: 8.0% (#7)
Block Rate: 8.8% (#3)
Defensive Rebounding Rate: 65.1% (#7)
Total Rebounding Rate: 49.7% (#6)
After a demanding nonconference schedule, Princeton started the Ivy League season losing its first two games. With the prospect of losing its claim to the top spot in the Ancient Eight, the Tigers recovered to take the next 12 league games (13 overall) and claim a share of the league title, their fifth straight.
As usual, Princeton is defined by its defense. They are the top defensive unit in the Ivy League and top 10 nationally. Each member of the rotation is adept at forcing turnovers and poor shot selection. When their opponents get too close to the rim, their interior defense and blocking proficiency tends to limit second chances.
The Tigers are also an experienced group with five of the top six rotation players were main contributors to last year’s regular season and tournament championships, as well as the team’s first-round upset of Kentucky and near upset of Indiana in the NCAA Tournament.
Offensively, the Tigers are led by Kaitlyn Chen, the Ivy League Player of the Year and the reigning Ivy League Tournament Most Outstanding Player. While the team sometimes struggles from the field, Chen is consistently strong and has a knack for the big play. Similar to Chen’s arrival on the league stage in conference play in 2022, first-year guard Madison St. Rose has stepped it up in the second half of the year. The five-star prospect can get out in transition and grab a number of breakaway buckets.
The team typically does their damage from inside the arc. With their stifling defense, there isn’t such a dependency on the three-ball as with most of the other teams in the conference.
Penn, as usual, is led by Kayla Padilla. The senior guard from California led the league in scoring and can get her points from anywhere on the floor. She is effectively complemented by junior forward Jordan Obi, who averaged almost 15 points a game and shoots over 50% from the field. Mandy McGurk adds almost 10 points a contest but only makes about 38% of her attempts.
The Quakers continue to be a defense-oriented program. While the numbers are solid, they are not as strong as in their dominant years of the 2010s. They do a good job limiting teams’ shots from the field but have difficulty forcing turnovers and grabbing rebounds.
In the first game between the longtime rivals, Princeton took control in the second quarter for a blowout win. Last week, it took the Tigers a half to capture their form and solve Penn’s changes from their first meeting before running away from the Red and Blue for their 13th win in a row and 10th straight in the series.
Fortunately for Princeton, Penn also likes to play in a more methodical tempo half-court game. Since high-scoring affairs tend to force Chen to put the team on her back on the offensive side, keeping the score lower will allow the Princeton rotational players to put up their typical numbers. Defensively, the Orange & Black are always locked in and just have to continue their fundamentals. If the Quakers should break out with some success, like they did in the opening 20 minutes last week, the Tigers can move to a full-court press to rattle the Red & Blue ballhandlers.
If Penn is to come away with the upset, Padilla is going to have to be a factor from outside early and get others besides Obi involved so the Tigers are forced to guard a more balanced offensive attack. Just as important, Penn must hold onto the ball and avoid the 24 turnovers they had in game #2 that can thwart any momentum and lead to easy Princeton buckets.
Given the consistent high-level play from Princeton plus last week’s dominant win and familiarity with their cavernous home court, it will be a challenge for Penn to find a way to break through in the third matchup of the season.
While Harvard, after losing a week earlier to the Tigers, found a way to take Princeton down to the wire in last year’s semifinals, the Crimson were playing at home and fighting to get one more game for their retiring coach, Kathy Delaney-Smith. Penn won’t have those factors on its side for Friday afternoon’s contest.
Over the last few days, upsets in other mid-major conferences have pushed Princeton to the last at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. In order to capture their fourth straight NCAA bid, Berube feels that one win will lock up a bid, but it would be better to win the automatic bid through the Ivy Tournament. A third victory over Penn will certainly help the team reach their bigger goals, but a loss could put their tournament streak in jeopardy.
An upset by the Quakers will lead them to a Saturday matchup against either Columbia or Harvard, teams that split the season series with Penn. A loss will leave McLaughlin and his team waiting anxiously for a bid to the WNIT.