Two weeks ago, Joe Lunardi of ESPN wrote that the Princeton men’s basketball team was on track to become the first team in history to earn a second Ivy League bid to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
“Conceivably, the Tigers could be 27-1 or thereabouts heading into the Ivy League championship game on Selection Sunday,” Lunardi wrote. “What would the committee do if Princeton drops that last game? Could the Ivy League really be a two-bid league? The answer from this seat is clearly ‘yes.’ And the uniqueness of it all is worth watching and even rooting for.”
Lunardi’s musing about Princeton’s men gaining an at-large berth to March Madness drew national attention, but it’s likely a moot point in the wake of Princeton’s hard fall in Ithaca last Saturday. The Cornell Big Red ran circles around the Tigers, defeating the two-time defending Ivy champs, 83-68, in the first of three possible matchups this season between Mitch Henderson’s and Brian Earl’s respective squads.
The loss dropped Princeton (15-2, 3-1 Ivy) out of first place in the Ivy League standings and probably wiped out any chance the Tigers have of earning an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament.
At this point, the only Ivy team of any stripe that has a good shot at an at-large berth is the Princeton women’s team (15-3, 5-0). It’s worth noting that Princeton women’s basketball is the only Ivy program in history to earn an at-large bid to March Madness, a feat it accomplished in 2016, a year prior to the adoption of the Ivy League Tournament.
Coming into this Ivy League season, the Princeton men’s team had built a top-30 NET ranking based primarily on the Tigers having won a boatload of road games against respectable, mid-major opponents. Once Ivy League play began, however, even as Princeton continued to win its first three Ivy contests, their NET ranking began to slide. The loss at Cornell sank Princeton’s NET ranking to 42, which is probably too low for an Ivy team to earn an at-large berth to the Big Dance.
Moreover, unless the Tigers run the table over their remaining 10 regular season games, their NET ranking will likely drop even further.
The same fate likely awaits every other Ivy team on the men’s side. At No. 79, Cornell is the next highest Ivy team in the NET rankings. But the Big Red have no Quad 1 wins and likely can’t climb high enough even if they were to finish undefeated in Ivy play. Ditto for Yale, currently ranked No. 91 in the NET rankings.
On the women’s side, however, one team is nicely positioned to earn an at-large berth should one be necessary: the Princeton women’s team. On Monday, coach Carla Berube’s squad secured a No. 25 ranking in both the AP Top 25 and Coaches polls for the second time this season.
The Princeton women’s NET ranking has also been climbing. Currently at No. 30, the Tigers have ascended 10 spots in the past two weeks and essentially have switched places with the men’s team.
ESPN’s most recent Bracketology column forecasts the Princeton women’s team as a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament field, the same as in 2023. But the Tigers can and will earn a much higher seed if they continue to win games the way they have been over the past several weeks.
Berube has her team riding a 10-game winning streak, the fifth-longest in the country. Also, the Tigers’ nonconference performance, which included wins over nationally ranked Oklahoma and three other power conference opponents presents a resume that will be difficult for the tournament selection committee to ignore come Selection Sunday.
A similar scenario occurred during the 2015-16 season, three years before Berube arrived at Old Nassau. During that campaign, the Tigers secured high-profile, nonconference wins over Michigan and Pittsburgh, while in conference play, the Tigers lost only to Penn (both times by a single bucket), who secured the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. With an impressive resume that included a 12-game winning streak, Princeton nabbed the only at-large berth in Ivy League history.
What about Megan Griffith’s Columbia squad (13-5, 4-1) this year? Is there any hope for an at-large berth for the Lions, who were notoriously snubbed by the NCAA selection committee a year ago?
Probably not. Columbia currently sports a NET ranking of 63, up 10 slots from where it stood in early January. The Lions finished the 2023 season with a NET ranking of 47, which apparently was just short of being good enough for an at-large berth in the minds of the selection committee.
The problem for any Ivy team looking to climb into position for an at-large berth at this point of the season is twofold. First, they have very limited opportunities going forward to impress the selection committee. Columbia, for example, has only one remaining opportunity to play a top-40 team in the regular season, a home clash with Princeton on Feb. 24.
Second, for this exercise to be relevant, we have to assume that Columbia will lose on their home court in the Ivy League tournament. Otherwise, it’ll earn the automatic bid and won’t need to be considered for an at-large berth.
Last year, the Lions entered the Ivy League tournament in a similar situation. Sitting at 23-4, the Lions desperately needed a win over Harvard in the semifinals of Ivy Madness to keep their hopes alive for a NCAA Tournament bid. They didn’t get it as Harvard stunned the Lions in overtime at Jadwin Gym to deny Columbia an opportunity to play Princeton in the championship game.
This year, the path for Columbia to earn an at-large bid looks to be slightly narrower. The Lions already have five losses (all coming against quality opponents), meaning they probably can’t afford to drop another contest in the regular season.
Conceivably, the Lions could run the table during the rest of the regular season, win at least another share of the Ivy League regular season title, and then draw Harvard again in the semifinals of the Ivy League tournament. This time, playing on their home court, let’s assume the Lions get past the Crimson and advance to the championship game.
What then if Columbia loses, presumably to Princeton, and watches their bitter rival cut down the nets at Levien Gymnasium? If all of that were to occur, Columbia would have a record of 23-6, with a home win over Princeton to go along with a road loss and a home loss to the Tigers. A year ago, Columbia had the same number of wins, one fewer loss, nonconference road wins over Memphis, Miami and Seton Hall, and a road win at Princeton, and it still wasn’t good enough for an at-large berth to the Big Dance.
What we can conclude from this analysis is that earning an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament is extremely difficult for any team, men’s or women’s, in the Ivy League.
To pull it off, at least three things have to happen. First, you have to play a tough out of conference schedule and you have to win games against high-profile opponents. If you manage that, your NET ranking may be high enough to put you in position for an at-large berth, as is the case currently for Princeton’s women (and was the case for Princeton’s men until last Saturday).
Second, you probably can’t afford to lose more than one game during the Ivy League regular season.
Finally, you probably have to advance to the championship game of Ivy Madness.
So far, only one Ivy League team squarely fits within this profile – the Princeton women. Columbia’s women and Princeton’s men may have an outside shot, but they will likely need to win the rest of their games before the Ivy League Tournament is even be in the conversation.