Media expectations for Penn basketball are the lowest they’ve been since coach Steve Donahue’s first season on campus in 2015. The Quakers were tabbed to finish seventh in the Ivy League, ahead of only Dartmouth.
Predictive analytics websites have a slightly rosier outlook and project Penn to be in the mix for a third or fourth-place finish, which would be good enough to earn a trip to Ivy Madness in Providence.
With the season just three weeks away, Ivy Hoops Online spoke with Donahue to take a deep dive into how the Quakers will operate with seven new players on the roster.
Both questions and answers have been edited for clarity and length:
Ivy Hoops Online: Looking at the KenPom numbers from last year, there was a decent gap between the offense (117th in efficiency) and defense (324th), and the opposing three-point attempt rate allowed was 346th. As you self-scouted in the offseason, what did you identify as the key structural issues on the defensive end, and what have you worked to install as a corrective?
Steve Donahue: We had been playing smaller, and we were just not good defensively. Some of that’s inexperience as well. But that’s been the main focus, changing those numbers. Back in 2018, we were 22nd in raw numbers, 72nd [per KenPom] in defense and most importantly, not giving up threes, not giving up assisted baskets, literally top 20 in the country.
We want to get back to that. Some of that was that we played much bigger. We played two bigs a lot and I think that’s been the focus. Play bigger. Get older. Don’t overhelp. Part of that is smaller, younger guys overhelping, but for sure, I think being bigger and understanding that our defense has to get a whole lot better, that was our focus in the spring, when we went to Croatia and here in the fall.
IHO: When I pull up Synergy Sports, it says that you guys zoned at just under a 19% rate and in 2022-23, it was about 1.6%. How much of the zone rate was dependent on personnel, and what did you see as some of the advantages and disadvantages of using the zone in conference play? [Three Man Weave first reported the zone rate figure.]
SD: Once again — and this is nothing against the schedule of the other seven teams in the league — but no one plays a nonconference schedule like we do when you play the Big 5 — obviously Villanova — and then Houston, Auburn, Kentucky. I think you’ve got to have the zone ready.
We hadn’t played zone in a while. We were really young. I thought it worked early. We played it a lot against Villanova in that win, and I thought, for the preseason, it was good. There were games in the league that it helped us, but honestly, that number is probably going be closer to 5-10%, I would think, because we’re bigger, stronger, older and I haven’t even put the zone in yet.
IHO: With Nick, Three Man Weave did an excellent preview which found the team was 93rd percentile in points per possession when he was getting double-teamed in the post. With where Nick stands right now, do you anticipate him getting more looks in single coverage? Or do you almost want the double team out there because he’s so skilled at making passes out of the post with a live dribble?
SD: Our league keeps evolving. A couple years ago, everyone had a really good big. There was Chris Lewis at Harvard and AJ Brodeur and Yale with Paul Atkinson and those bigs.
It’s just spun out now. Now a lot of guys have hybrid fours and fives. I think Nick has a chance to score from the low block, but my feeling is that I want to go away from his usage rate being so high and being someone who makes so many plays for others in turn probably puts him into more turnover situations.
I want this to be more in those playmakers’ hands. In Ethan Roberts and Sam Brown and Dylan Williams and A.J. Levine rather than Nick.
I think Nick’s going to play off of ball screens. Hybrids — “hondos,” we call them — those euro tosses and those kinds of actions as opposed to get the ball to Nick, get him in some dribble handoffs or in the low post and wait for the double.
I don’t know if we’ve posted him up the whole fall yet. It’s just the way the offense is evolving. And I want that.
I want him being a finisher, a rebounder, a duck-in, sprint in transition, ball screens, slip-in type of guy.
IHO: At the end of the season, what do you think would need to be in place for this team to be in the top 100 offensively?
SD: I think we’ve got to be around high 50s, close to 60% from two. If you’re going to play two bigs, you better be efficient with it.
Our numbers in Croatia, we still shot a lot of threes. I think the misnomer is: “Well, you’re only putting three shooters out there.”
But the ability to have two bigs out there that can create shots with screening and ball screens and kickouts and offensive rebounds, just defensive rebounds and pushing in transition allows you to get threes. We have to be an efficient two-point shooting team.
And it can’t be: “Hey, you’re in the top 100.” You’ve got to be top-25. That’s my goal. Playing two bigs, let’s make that a big advantage.
If we do that, I think we’ll shoot the ball from three and we could be a top-50 offense.
IHO: There’s a pretty gap between what the preseason poll says about the team and what Haslametrics, EvanMiya and Bart Torvik say. What ultimately gives you confidence that the collection of players you have right now is able to compete for and win a championship?
SD: I think after last year, we had six years in the top four, we played for a championship in the last game of the year two years ago, but at the same time, as I said as we started this, I knew we had to pivot here.
I didn’t like where we were going defensively. I didn’t like our rebounding. I didn’t like the feeling that we had gotten away from over those last couple of seasons.
So to answer your question, if you’re going to implement a physical style and play two bigs, then you better be good at it. You better guard. You better rebound. You better finish at the rim. You better really compete and do a great job on the defensive end.
And then your better players that you’ve brought in, they’ve got to play to a level that allows you to score at the offensive end.