Penn’s undefeated start to nonconference play wasn’t going to last forever. But it certainly didn’t need to end the way it did on Tuesday night.
The Quakers lost a very winnable game on the road against a shorthanded Lafayette squad, 65-63, thanks in large part to a dreadful performance at the free throw line.
Penn (2-1) shot 14-for-24 from the charity stripe, which comes out to a ghastly 58.3% shooting percentage.
The game’s deciding points came with 2.5 seconds to go when Leopards sophomore guard Mark Butler drove into the lane, drew contact from Penn reserve forward Johnnie Walter and calmly drained two free throws.
Penn tried for a home-run pass to set up either a tying or game-winning buzzer-beater, but Nick Spinoso’s inbounds pass to a waiting George Smith at midcourt was deflected away.
There’s much to think about ahead of a Friday home contest against a Saint Joseph’s team coming off a statement win against Villanova, starting with how …
Ethan Roberts is clearly Penn’s go-to guy.
Game after game, Roberts seems to raise the bar for what he can do on the court.
On Tuesday, the junior wing showed off his stellar basketball IQ and court vision, dishing out a career-high seven assists.
He gave the Quakers a lead they should not have surrendered late in the second half when he found Sam Brown in the corner for an open transition three and then hit Nick Spinoso with an even better pass through two defenders in the lane for buckets on consecutive possessions.
Roberts also finished with 14 points, a team-high KenPom offensive rating of 128 points per 100 possessions and six rebounds. Per KenPom, Roberts now ranks in the top 500 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, assist rate, free throw rate, free throw shooting percentage and three-point shooting percentage.
Penn is incredibly fortunate that it landed Roberts, who is more than just a replacement for Tyler Perkins. He’s an improvement.
The free throw issues have a corrosive effect.
Tuesday’s struggles at the free throw line were best exemplified by Spinoso, who shot 2-for-6 from the stripe. His 50% free throw percentage on the season is actually a career high.
In many ways, Spinoso has had a truly excellent start to the season. He has been one of the best players in the country at drawing fouls and getting to the line. By KenPom, Spinoso’s free throw rate ranks 17th in Division I and the 8.4 fouls he draws per 40 minutes ranks 76th.
On Tuesday, Spinoso drew six fouls, including a pair of flagrants. The issue is that Spinoso’s free-throw shooting blunts the effects of those trips to the stripe and has the second-order effect of forcing coach Steve Donahue to pull him off the floor in late-game situations.
With the game on the line on Tuesday, Spinoso was off the floor, replaced by Walter. Walter finished with a -10 plus/minus in a little over four minutes of run.
Would the outcome of the final Lafayette possession have been different if Spinoso — who finished with four blocks — was out there? We’ll never know.
Lafayette’s last possession prompts an interesting thought experiment.
A better question about that last possession may be if Penn should have fouled Lafayette’s center, Misha Bednostin.
As crazy as that may sound, there was a real case for doing so. With starting center Justin Vander Baan out with a hand injury, Lafayette was forced to roll with Bednostin as its primary big man.
Bednostin finished with 15 rebounds on the evening but only scored two points on four shots. He missed all three of his free throw attempts, and none were particularly close.
Penn arguably could have been better off if it chose to foul Bednostin earlier on during that final possession, which began with 15.7 seconds left on the clock. Even if Bednostin drained both of his free throws, an early foul would have at least preserved plenty of time for Penn to run a real offensive set for a tying or winning shot at the buzzer.
At the same time, though, it’s hard to fault the Quakers for playing straight-up defense in a tie game. Penn generally guarded well on the ball, even though the Leopards wound up scoring 1.12 points per possession.
I think we’re kind of stuck with this roster. There was the obvious need after last year to get better defensively, hence the double bigs, but that’s going to have an obvious impact on both the spacing on the floor and the 3-point attempts the team can put up. It’s not just about suppressing offense and 3-point attempts on the other end, but we need to get them up at a decent clip. And if our bigs can’t hit FTs, it also just changes the calculus of how we approach end-of-game situations.
A lot to chew on three games in.