PRINCETON, N.J. – By now, you’ve probably seen Dalen Davis’ game-winning three-pointer to beat Akron 76-75 on Monday afternoon, completing a remarkable comeback, not for the first time this season for Princeton.
The win over the Zips (7-5) may have been the most impressive comeback, down 11 with seven minutes left, but the Tigers also overcame deficits against Iona, Northeastern, Merrimack, Monmouth and Rutgers.
Impressive fortitude, yes. But is it a sign of a veteran team that will continue to do this for the next few months, or an ominous omen that the preseason Ivy League favorites might be extremely vulnerable this season?
(Adding another variable into the mix is the injury to All-Ivy selection Caden Pierce, who went down with an ankle injury minutes into Monday’s game, tried to return with it taped up, but couldn’t move well enough to continue. Princeton has 10 days until its Ivy opener at Harvard, so the Tigers hope that will be enough to heal, but that won’t be determined in the near term.)
“A couple of things went our way at the end, but I always believe that we’re going to win and I think the guys do, too,” Princeton coach Mitch Henderson said.
One section of the prognostic population that has been far from impressed with Princeton are the computers. With all the preseason hype and the return of Pierce and Xaivian Lee, the Tigers started the season at No. 74 nationally in KenPom, but the close win over Akron (who, to be fair, is one of the favorites in the MAC) continued the steady decline to 113. Bart Torvik was not as high in preseason (98), but they now sit at 141 there, 50 spots behind Yale and leaving Cornell, Columbia, and Brown within striking distance. Henderson has been around long enough to be well aware of that as well.
“We were really completely outplayed almost the whole game,” Henderson said. “We weren’t really that competitive. I was glad that we were close, then it got to 13, 15. No excuses, but you could see without Caden (Pierce), the importance of him at a lot of different levels for us.”
Davis deserves plenty of credit for hitting the game-winner after a 1-for-12 start from the field, but depending so much on him and Lee has been problematic. Other than senior Blake Peters, no other Tiger averages six points per game and without Deven Austin, Mitch Henderson has had to depend on freshman Malik Abdullahi and Payton Seals, junior Jack Scott, and sophomores Jackson Hicke (whom Henderson was very complimentary of postgame) and Jacob Huggins.
(As I was near the TV crew Monday, the discussion on whether Davis’ shot was a three or two was quite fascinating. It seemed to originally be a two, but then the official said it was a three, but he was calling it a two because it was “inconclusive.” After six minutes, they finally ruled it a three, which seemed like the correct call, but it was a wild ride.)
Still, Princeton is still shooting 37.5% from three, good for 43rd nationally and its total offensive efficiency is a respectable 92nd. But they were 29th last season, and combined with a pretty average defense (which they were last year, but still), there are plenty of reasons for the Ivy League to think the Tigers are not exactly a juggernaut at the moment.
The Tigers open Ivy play with two games they will be favored in against Harvard and Dartmouth. But they are both on the road, and with Pierce’s status uncertain, it would make the computers feel better if they could put up a couple of decisive victories. After that comes home games with Columbia, Cornell, and Yale (now the heavy computer favorite, although it is dealing with some injuries as well).
Obviously, there is much more room for error in the modern Ivy League where the top four teams go to the postseason tournament – a lesson Princeton learned last year getting upset by Brown. It would still be a huge shock by any standard for the Tigers to miss the Ivy League Tournament completely, they are 10-4 with a win over Rutgers.
But that doesn’t mean that there still isn’t a lot of room for improvement that the early-season record might be masking.
Ray, I agree with your premise. The comebacks are entertaining and certainly demonstrate resilience. But the fact that Princeton continues to fall behind before finding the spirit to win, especially against lower rated opponents, says something ominous about this team. There are lots of problems. The team is undersized, although this may be less of a problem in the Ivy League. As you point out, the team lacks depth. And then there is something else that’s hard to put a finger on. There seems to be a subtle attitudinal issue in which the other team consistently appears to want it more than Princeton. The injury to Pierce compounds all of this. There’s time for this team to find itself and only a fool would count out Mitch Henderson, Caden, Xaivian Peters, and the rest of the Orange and Black.
The Tigers have been inconsistent this season, but their games against St. Joe’s and Rutgers demonstrated their ability to play at a very high level against strong teams. In both of those games, our guys scrapped hard for rebounds, loose balls, etc. and seemed to “want it more” than their opponents.
I do think that we’ve underestimated the impact of losing Mush and Martini, both of whom were highly emotional and vocal leaders. This year’s team seems to composed of quiet, introverted players and lacks a vocal leader. Cade and Jack Scott may come the closest.
What do others think of Pierce and Lee hosting a weekly video podcast on the Princeton athletics website? It may not mean anything, of course. Perhaps that is the most likely takeaway.
But when I see two players who add a new time commitment to their already packed schedules, to me it reflects a binary possibility: Either (a) these two guys love the attention and it will drive them to excel more to justify further attention; or (b) these two guys are loving the attention and it might be a distraction they don’t need.
BlueCrew: I love the podcast. I think it’s entertaining and interesting. And while I wouldn’t necessarily “blame” the podcast for distracting the players, I think you’re onto something very subtle. I plan to write something about this somewhere down the line this season, but I do think there’s a very subtle issue at play with the Tigers this season in terms of expectations and motivations. I would never accuse any player or any coach of not “wanting it” enough to win, but even Mitch Henderson has admitted that Princeton’s cache has caught up with them in terms of other teams being highly motivated to take them down when they get the chance. To put it simply, the Tigers have a target on their backs. Aside from that, there may be a very subtle influence at work with XL, Caden, and even Mitch in terms of them expecting to win, taking for granted that they will win, and not necessarily starting every game with the same hunger they may have had in previous years.
Putting aside all of the armchair psychiatry, which none of us is qualified to engage in, I do think there are straight-forward roster limitations with this squad. They are too small to defend the paint against teams with athletic fowards and guards who can dribble penetrate. They don’t have reliable scoring beyond the big 3 of Pierce, Lee and Davis. And as Jim from Jersey points out, they haven’t been able yet to replace the leadership (and talent) that Matt Allocco brought to the team.
My overall assessment is that this team simply isn’t as good as last year’s squad because of a lack of balance. Last year’s team was almost perfectly aligned in terms of leadership, skill, and experience. Like this year’s team, though, it was undersized, which is why they struggled in 3 games against Brown and eventually fell to the Bears in the IL Tournament. This year’s team is not as well balanced.
Can they overcome this? Yes, and especially since all you have to do now is qualify for the IL tournament, which the Tigers certainly will do, and then win two games. Again, no one should count this crew out. Or maybe we should, which might help light a fire for the Orange and Black!