With fewer than five weeks to go before Selection Sunday, coaches, players and the soothsayers known as bracketologists are beginning to focus their attention on which teams might gain a coveted berth to the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament.
Three teams in the Ivy League realistically are in contention for the 68 invitations that will be spread among the 362 Division I teams this year: Columbia, Harvard and Princeton.
One of these three teams is very likely to earn the automatic qualification slotted for the team that wins the Ivy League Tournament in Providence on March 15. For the past five years in which Ivy teams have competed (COVID resulted in no Ivy League postseason play in in 2020 and 2021), Princeton has secured the automatic bid by winning the Ivy League Tournament.
Last year, Columbia joined Princeton in the field of 68 when the NCAA selection committee surprised Ivy hoops fans by extending an at-large invitation to the Lions.
Columbia’s bid was a surprise not because the Lions didn’t deserve it. After all, coach Megan Griffith’s squad tied with Princeton for the regular season Ivy League title and beat Providence, Seton Hall, Memphis and Villanova in nonconference action.
But going into Selection Sunday last year, the Lions sported a NET ranking of only 57, and they had just suffered a lopsided homecourt loss to Princeton in the Ivy League Tournament championship game the day before. Since Columbia had been snubbed by the selection committee in 2023 despite having a NET ranking of 47, few followers of women’s college hoops expected a second Ivy bid last year.
This year, three Ivy teams are ranked in the top 45 of the NET, including Harvard (35), Columbia (42) and Princeton (45). These rankings can and will change over the next five weeks, but probably not by much unless one or more of the big three loses multiple games prior to Ivy Madness.
So what are the chances of two or more teams from the Ivy League making the NCAA Tournament this year?
The chances are excellent for two teams to make the Big Dance, but not three.
Let’s start by looking at Columbia, ranked No. 42 in the NET and currently in sole possession of first place in the Ivy League standings with a perfect 8-0 record.
At 17-4 overall, the Lions are riding high with a 10-game winning streak. They also notched votes in the most recent AP Top 25 poll for the first time this season.
Columbia also has a very favorable schedule down the stretch, with five home games in its final six regular-season contests.
The Lions’ only remaining road tilt is a doozy – a clash with Princeton at Jadwin Gymnasium on February 22, where Columbia hasn’t won since 2008. But even if the Lions drop the game at Princeton, they’re likely to finish first in the Ivy League standings and head into Ivy Madness with the No. 1 seed, meaning that they very likely won’t have to face Princeton or Harvard again until the Ivy League Tournament championship game.
A worst-case scenario for Columbia would be losing at home to Harvard on February 16, losing on the road to Princeton, and then stumbling in the semifinals of the Ivy League tournament on March 14 in Providence. Barring this unlikely turn of events, the Lions look like a lock for either the Ivy League’s automatic bid or an at-large invitation to the Big Dance.
Next, let’s consider Princeton’s resume. Regarded as the royalty of the Ivy League, the Tigers have won six straight Ivy League regular season titles and have cut down the nets at the last five Ivy tourneys.
Princeton is the only Ivy team other than Columbia last year to be given an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament, earning a bid in 2016 despite finishing second to Penn in the Ivy League standings.
Princeton’s pedigree as a national power was solidified when the Tigers took down No. 7 North Carolina State in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament and No. 6 Kentucky in the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Princeton currently sits alone in second place of the Ivy standings with a 7-1 record. The Tigers may have secured the most impressive results of any Ivy team in the non-conference season, beating three Big East foes (Seton Hall, Villanova, and DePaul), a Big Ten team (Rutgers), an Atlantic 10 opponent (Rhode Island), and the likely winner of Conference USA (Middle Tennessee State).
Although Princeton hasn’t yet notched any Quad 1 wins, the Tigers can point to a 3-1 record in Quad 2 contests and a 4-2 record in Quad 3 games to make the case that they deserve to make another appearance in the Big Dance.
Princeton has the lowest NET ranking of the big three at 45, but enjoys by a wide margin the highest-rated strength of schedule at 66. In contrast, Columbia’s strength of schedule is 99 while Harvard’s is 171.
The Tigers finish the regular season with a challenging schedule, traveling to Harvard and Dartmouth for a grueling back-to-back weekend on February 28 and March 1. Princeton closes the regular season against arch-rival Penn at the Palestra on March 8. Prior to running that gauntlet, Princeton hosts Columbia, as noted above, on February 22.
Of the big three, Princeton probably sits in the most precarious position in terms of gaining an at-large berth simply because its NET ranking of 45 places it squarely on the bubble.
For reference, last year, four NET-ranked teams in the 40s failed to gain at-large invitations to March Madness, including Washington (42), TCU (46), Mississippi State (47) and Illinois (49). However, it’s worth noting that each of these teams had double-digit losses entering Selection Sunday.
In his most recent Bracketology projection issued on Tuesday, ESPN’s Charlie Creme projects Princeton as the second-to-last team to be left out of the field of 68, behind Washington (NET 53), Virginia Tech (NET 46), Nebraska (NET 40) and St. Joseph’s (NET 49).
A worst-case scenario for the Tigers would be losing two or more of its six remaining regular season games and then losing in the semifinals of the Ivy League Tournament. Even a single loss in any of its remaining six regular-season games may require the Tigers to run the table at Ivy Madness to advance to its sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament.
At 6-2 in Ivy play, third-place Harvard presents the most complex case in terms of assessing its chances of winning an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament.
The Crimson haven’t made an appearance in the Big Dance since 2007, but their place in March Madness lore was cemented in 1998 when Harvard shocked Stanford, 71-67, to become the first (and so far the only) No. 16 seed in women’s tournament history to upset a No. 1 seed.
Harvard boasts a gaudy NET ranking of 35 and the Crimson secured the Ivy League’s only Quad 1 win over a non-conference opponent with a 72-68 overtime win at Indiana way back on November 7.
But Harvard has lost two of its last seven games, including an 80-71 thumping at home to Columbia on January 31.
Fortunately, Harvard’s two league losses haven’t had any impact on the Crimson’s NET ranking. Also, it’s worth noting that no team with a NET ranking in the 30s has failed to win a bid to the NCAA Tournament in the past two years, including an Arizona squad that sported a 17-15 record on Selection Sunday last year (although Washington State with a NET ranking of 29, failed to win an at-large berth last year).
Like Princeton, Harvard faces a challenging schedule ahead, hitting the road for four of its last six games, including a monumental tilt this Saturday at Columbia.
Harvard hosts Princeton on February 28, and could do itself a world of good by holding serve at home against the Tigers after falling on January 11 at Jadwin, 52-50, on a buzzer beater by Ashley Chea.
A worst-case scenario for Harvard would be losing the second round of matchups against the other members of the big three, Columbia and Princeton, on February 16 and 28, respectively. Harvard has struggled to achieve parity with the Lions and Tigers, dropping seven of its last eight combined clashes against the defending Ivy co-champions.
Currently, ESPN’s Creme has Harvard pegged as one of the last four teams to make the field of 68, meaning that the Crimson have a narrow margin of safety should they need to rely on the selection committee to issue them an invitation to the Big Dance.
It’s unlikely three Ivy League teams will earn bids to the NCAA tournament this year despite Columbia, Harvard and Princeton each having built deserving resumes.
The politics of the selection process likely will make it impossible for a small, non-scholarship conference like the Ivy League to win more bids than either the Big East or even the Atlantic 10, both of which Creme projects will only secure two bids.
Moreover, because power-conference teams mostly refuse to play the best Ivy squads, Princeton, Harvard and Columbia won’t be able to present a resume with more than one or two Quad 1 wins.
Finally, because the big three members will by necessity end up inflicting multiple, additional losses on each other in the coming weeks, it’s unlikely that either Harvard, Columbia or Princeton will be able to bolster their NET rankings significantly prior to Selection Sunday.
My prediction is that two teams again will represent the Ivy League in the NCAA Tournament this year, which will be cause enough for celebration.
Moreover, I believe the three-team race for two bids will end up resembling a game of musical chairs, with the semifinal matchup between the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds at the Ivy League Tournament (currently Princeton and Harvard) serving as a de-facto play-in game for the second Ivy bid to the Big Dance.
The good news is that Ivy hoops fans are assured of drama in Providence like we’ve never seen before. Buckle up and enjoy the madness.
While there is certainly a case to be made for all 3 teams to get into the NCAA Tournament, two seems more likely. With that noted, it is also realistic to think that the committee will end up only taking one, if Columbia ends up with a 14-0 record and the Ivy Madness title.
Harvard has two huge games at Columbia and home to Princeton to make its case for a shot at the Ivy Tournament title and a spot in the field of 68. Winning both would be great for the Crimson, but I think they need at least one victory to improve the team’s confidence heading into the Ivy’s final four. Losing both makes it hard to see them getting past the Friday semifinals against either the Tigers or Lions.
While Princeton is 4-0 since losing to Columbia, the Tigers played 4 lesser quality teams and only dominated Yale. The Tigers will have to play better vs Columbia & Harvard. If they go 1-1 or 2-0 in those games, they could have a good chance to make it to the Ivy final and get a bid (auto or at-large). Going 0-2 may make it too difficult to get into the NCAA tourney.
Great Insights but One Error
Steve,
Insightful comments as usual, but you have one error. You mention that the Columbia women have not beaten Princeton at Jadwin since 2008, but Columbia beat Princeton at Jadwin in 2023.
You’re right Steve! I forgot about that OT loss in 2023. I stand corrected!
Update: Today (Friday), Charlie Creme updated his bracketology projection and now Princeton is included in the field as a “last four” team, along with Harvard. For the first time, Creme now projects a 3-bid Ivy in the field of 68!