Another eventful weekend of women’s hoops games has set the table for a dramatic conclusion to the Ivy League season.
The Columbia Lions (19-5, 10-1 Ivy) seized control of the race for the regular season title with another come-from-behind win over the Princeton Tigers, 64-60, at Jadwin Gymnasium on Saturday. The Lions completed a rare series sweep of the Tigers and put themselves in position to earn a third consecutive Ivy League title and the program’s first outright championship.
All Columbia needs to do now is hold serve at home against Brown, Yale and Cornell, all lower division teams in the Ivy standings, to secure the No. 1 seed at the Ivy League Tournament next month in Providence. Earning the No. 1 seed is important because it means avoiding Harvard or Princeton until the championship game.
Columbia easily beat Brown, Yale and Cornell earlier in the season on the road, winning by an average of nearly 25 points per contest. With so much on the line, it’s hard to imagine the Lions will stumble in any of its final three games.
For Princeton (18-6, 9-2), the loss to Columbia on Saturday surely stings. The Tigers had succeeded in taking control of the game from the Lions in the third quarter, carrying a six-point lead into the final stanza. The Tigers seemed to be wearing down the Lions in the paint and had largely succeeded in breaking Columbia’s press without turning the ball over more than a few times.
But things quickly went off the rails in the first two minutes of the fourth frame when the Tigers turned the ball over three consecutive times, sparking a game deciding 13-0 run for the Lions. Princeton’s hopes of winning a seventh consecutive Ivy League crown slipped away in what seemed like the blink of an eye.
The Tigers have had lapses at key moments this season, something you might expect from a team that starts four sophomores. In this case, the collapse began with two starters on the bench, including senior center Parker Hill and elite defender Olivia Hutcherson. Princeton coach Carla Berube may have been trying to rest Hill and Hutcherson for the stretch run of the game, but the decision backfired.
On Columbia’s bench, coach Megan Griffith made an even bigger gamble and got away with it.
With 4:14 to go in the third quarter, Griffith’s floor leader, Kitty Henderson, picked up her fourth foul. Griffith benched Henderson for two minutes but then reinserted her for offense with nearly two minutes left in the third frame.
Henderson was careful not to foul and ended up hitting what turned out to be the game-clinching three-pointer with 18 seconds to play in the fourth quarter.
Henderson, a stalwart senior who set the all-time record at Columbia for assists on Saturday, is the heart and soul of Griffith’s squad. Had the gritty and talented Australian fouled out late in the third quarter or at any time in the game, Princeton probably would have prevailed. It was a big gamble by Griffith to trust her senior to avoid fouling, and it ended up paying off.
On the other bench, it’s fair to ask whether Princeton should have made a more deliberate effort to run its offense right at Henderson once she reentered the game with four fouls. Undoubtedly, Berube and company would have made that a higher priority had their team not lost control of the game early in the fourth quarter.
Princeton’s unraveling in the opening minutes of the final frame created an urgency to score and stop the bleeding. Once the Tigers gave up a 13-0 run to start the fourth quarter, they no longer had the luxury of running plays at Henderson; they simply had to find a way to score whether Henderson was in the way or not.
The loss was extremely damaging to Princeton in two ways. First, with two Ivy League losses, the Tigers now have no chance to win the regular season title unless they run the table and receive help from one of Columbia’s remaining opponents. As noted above, the likelihood of the Lions losing at home in any of its final three games is very low.
The other problem for Princeton is the damage to the Tigers’ chances of earning a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Realistically, only two teams from the Ivy League will win bids to the field of 68: the Ivy League Tournament winner and one at-large team.
The loss to Columbia means that Princeton likely will face the tall task of having to beat Harvard in the semifinals of Ivy Madness (instead of Penn or whomever earns the No. 4 seed), and then presumably Columbia in the championship game in order to secure the automatic bid.
Should the Tigers fail to win the Ivy League Tournament, the NCAA Selection Committee will likely end up comparing Princeton’s resume with Harvard’s or Columbia’s (whichever team does not end up winning the Ivy tourney).
At the moment, Princeton’s resume doesn’t compare favorably with either Harvard’s or Columbia’s. Let’s start with Columbia. The Lions have swept the Tigers twice, have a higher NET ranking (42 compared to 49 for Princeton), and have a Quad 1 win compared to no Quad 1 wins for Princeton.
Harvard’s resume also looks better than Princeton’s. Although the Tigers beat Harvard in their sole meeting so far, 52-50 at Jadwin, Harvard’s NET ranking of 35 is too high for the NCAA Selection Committee to ignore.
Fortunately for Princeton, there are games left to be played, including two potential matchups against Harvard. If Princeton beats Harvard on Friday on the road and then defeats the Crimson again in the semifinals of the Ivy League Tournament, the Tigers would suddenly have two Quad 1 wins along with a likely boost in their NET ranking.
Moreover, if the Selection Committee ends up having to choose between the Crimson and the Tigers, it would be hard to overlook a three-game sweep by one team over the other.
The above analysis also underscores the importance of next weekend’s games for Harvard.
The Crimson (20-3, 9-2) dodged a bullet at Providence last Saturday, escaping with a 60-57 win over the Brown Bears. Brown was on the precipice of winning the game when veteran center Gianna Aiello, playing on senior day, missed an uncontested layup with four seconds left in a one-point game.
Had Harvard lost to Brown, its chances of securing an at-large berth would have taken a serious hit. As noted above, the Crimson could still fumble away their at-large chances by falling to Princeton on Friday and then again in the semifinals of Ivy Madness.
A key factor in assessing Harvard’s chances going forward is the health of junior guard Saniyah Glenn-Bello. The Crimson’s third-leading scorer and rebounder missed last Saturday’s game at Brown due to injury.
Glenn-Bello has come on in recent weeks and played a big role in Harvard’s stunning win at Columbia on February 16. Should the junior guard miss extended time, Harvard may continue to struggle, as it did against Brown last weekend.
Although the race at the top of the standings appears to be settled for now with Columbia firmly in control, the competition for fourth place and the final slot in Ivy Madness remains up for grabs.
At 5-6 in League play, the Penn Quakers currently sit alone in fourth place, one game above Brown, whose conference record is 4-7. But the Quakers have games remaining at Harvard and at home against Princeton, and they will be significant underdogs in both of those contests. The Red and Blue also play at Dartmouth next weekend, a tough but winnable game.
Brown’s schedule is slightly easier than Penn’s, although all three remaining games for the Bears are on the road. The Bears travel to Columbia on Friday, where they are unlikely to prevail. However, Brown finishes the season at bottom-dwellers Cornell and Yale, both winnable games.
Brown is currently mired in a five-game losing streak and coach Monique LeBlanc is also dealing with several injuries and a depleted roster. Still, the Bears are certainly capable of winning two of their final three games, which likely would produce a tie with Penn for the fourth and final berth to Ivy Madness.
Head-to-head competition between tied teams is the first criterion for determining the higher seed under the Ivy League’s tiebreaker rules. Since the Quakers and Bears split their games against each other earlier in the season, the second criterion comes into play: the teams’ records against higher-rated teams in the conference. This criterion also likely will fail to resolve the matter since neither Penn nor Brown has beaten a higher seed (Columbia, Harvard or Princeton) so far this season.
The final tiebreaker is based on which team has the higher NET ranking and here Penn has a clear advantage, at least for now. As of February 23, Penn’s NET ranking is 166, while Brown’s NET ranking is 179.
That gap could narrow between now and the end of the regular season, especially if either team puts up a valiant fight against one of the big three in their remaining games. Brown, for example, picked up nine slots in the NET after coming close to beating Harvard on Saturday. However, with two games remaining against members of the big three, Penn has a better chance of improving its NET ranking than Brown.
In short, Brown may need to rise up and beat Columbia on Friday at Levien Gymnasium if it hopes to win a bid to Ivy Madness. Alternatively, the Bears can hope for an upset on Friday night when Penn travels to Hanover to face Dartmouth.
For now, the field for Ivy Madness looks all too familiar: Columbia, Harvard, Princeton and Penn, the same teams as in 2024 and 2023.