No. 3 Harvard v. No. 2 Columbia: Ivy League Tournament women’s semifinal preview

Just a week after a riveting come-from-behind victory for Harvard women’s basketball over Columbia, the two sides will meet again in an Ivy League Tournament semifinal matchup.

The Lions (20-7 overall, 11-3 Ivy) held a 16-point lead in the third quarter last Saturday,  and keeping any portion of it would have granted them their fourth straight Ivy League regular season title.

But Harvard, which secured the No. 3 seed regardless of last Saturday’s result — fought back, spoiling Columbia’s Senior Day en route to a 68-64 win.

The thrill of victory and sting of defeat for Harvard and Columbia, respectively, can’t linger long, as the two sides are deep in preparation for the rubber match of their season series that will leave the winner 40 minutes away from punching a ticket to the Big Dance.

Despite strong seasons from each team with NET rankings in the top 65 nationally, neither appears to be in contention for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Looking back at this season’s past contests

When the two sides faced off in early January, Columbia won, 58-55, with Perri Page scoring the game-winning basket with just one second to go. March’s contest featured more efficient offense from both sides.

At Lavietes Pavilion in January, junior guard and recently-crowned Ivy League Player of the Year Riley Weiss had yet to hit her stride. Weiss shot 3–for-16 for the field and just 1–for-5 from three. Senior Perri Page, a fellow First Team All-Ivy honoree, did the heavy lifting for the Lions, scoring 24 points in addition to hauling in 12 rebounds.

On Harvard’s end, Second Team All-Ivy junior center Abigail Wright led the way with 20 points on 8–for-15 shooting. While senior guard Saniyah Glenn-Bello and junior guard Karlee White added 12 and 13 points, respectively, no other Harvard player scored more than three points.

The Lions built a strong halftime lead, heading into the break up 34–21. Harvard stormed back in the third, tying the game at 47, before a close fourth quarter led to Page’s late-game heroics.

Fast forward to March, and while the location and score were different, much of the narrative was the same. Columbia built a large lead into a nearly identical halftime margin, 35–22, in the Lions’ favor. As mentioned, Harvard then stormed back in the third, once again tying the game as they did in January. This time, heading into the fourth, the two sides were knotted at 51.

The parallels continue. The last score at which the two sides were tied was none other than 55–55, just like in January. This time, Karlee White — who led all scorers with 24 points, just like Page in January — broke the tie with a layup with just over five minutes to go, taking a 57–55 lead.

Harvard maintained its lead through the final five minutes of play, with White recording nine rebounds in addition to her 24 points. It was a much more balanced effort for the Crimson as well, as all starters scored eight or more points.

On the Columbia side, it was another quiet night for Weiss. Coming off a strong February, she scored 14 points on just 3-for-14 shooting, 2-for–8 from beyond the arc.

If this year’s two matchups between Columbia and Harvard are to be any judge of what’s to come, it’ll be tied at 55 with two minutes left on the clock. Even if that specific prediction doesn’t come true, the two rivals are sure to have a battle that goes down to the wire.

Whose defensive leader will shine the brightest?

Columbia forward Perri Page and Harvard guard Karlee White each scored 24 points in their team’s win. Both are the defensive leader of their respective team, as Page won Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year honors and White leads the Ivy in Defensive Box Plus-Minus, per Bart Torvik.

If Page can shut down Harvard’s threats in the paint, the Crimson will be reliant on shooting from mid-range and deeper, areas where they have struggled this season.

Meanwhile, if White – who is likely to be guarding Weiss – holds Columbia’s star to a quiet game yet again, Harvard could find itself in the Ivy tourney final.

Will Columbia capitalize on their three-point shooting advantage?

It’s no secret Weiss likes to shoot the three. Weiss led the Ivy in attempts and conversions by far this year and doesn’t need much open space when she’s hot. However, she has not yet found her stride against a Harvard team that doesn’t shoot from beyond the arc very much.

In its two contests, Harvard has shot 5–for-17 from three, while Columbia has shot 10–for-34. Both have averaged an identical shooting percentage, but led by Weiss, the Lions have a stronger potential to heat up and return closer to their season average shooting percentage.

If Weiss, Page, or even a contributor like senior guard Marija Avlijas or sophomore guard Mia Broom start drilling deep shots, it could be a long night for the Crimson.

Friday’s rematch will occur following the semifinal matchup between top seed Princeton (24-3, 12-2) and No. 4 Brown (16-10, 8-6) at Newman Arena. Tip-off will be at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN+.