Penn’s nonconference campaign took a dark turn after the Red and Blue took a very difficult-to-accept loss at Navy, 81-76.
The Quakers (1-2) roared out to a 21-6 lead on the back of aggressive pressure defense and strong play from its best players, TJ Power and Sir Mohammed. It looked for an instant like Penn was going to put together a blowout road win that would give its predictive metrics a major boost.
But the Midshipmen (3-1) eventually righted the ship (no pun intended), slowed the visitors down and put together a 22-1 run midway through the first half which flipped the game over and put Penn in a negative game script the rest of the evening.
The Quakers rallied back despite the referees calling things extremely tightly in a choppy second half. They trailed by just one, 56-55, after forward Lucas Lueth converted a nifty reverse layup. Less than 30 seconds later, Lueth had an open corner three to take the lead, but the shot rimmed out.
Penn never got a go-ahead shot up in the air again.
Red flags abounded on Wednesday evening, starting with how …
Penn looks like it has a short-term point guard problem.
This problem is not really the fault of junior starter AJ Levine, who put up 11 points to mark his first double-figure scoring effort of the season. Levine remains Penn’s best on-ball defender, and he attacked the rim aggressively after penetrating the lane, a welcome sight.
Two concerns remain for Levine. One is that opponents do not respect his outside shot. Levine missed an open three in the game’s early minutes and turned down at least one long-range opportunity after Navy sagged off him in the second half.
The other is that his health is now a question mark. Levine injured his ankle and his shoulder on Wednesday. The Elmhurst, Ill. native suffered the latter injury when he drew a foul on a collision in the lane, taking him out of the game for good.
Neither of Levine’s backups — Jay Jones and Ethan Lin — had any real impact in limited minutes. Jones missed an open corner three which would have drawn Penn within one point with 27 seconds to play.
If Levine can’t go on Saturday at Saint Joseph’s, the Quakers will have an uphill battle to stay competitive.
The free-throw shooting was a minus factor.
As mentioned before, the second half of Wednesday’s game was called differently from the first half. Navy was in the bonus after barely five minutes had gone by in the second frame. Both teams combined to commit 45 fouls.
Eventually, the calls evened out, and both teams had a near-even number of opportunities at the free throw line.
The difference on Wednesday is that Navy shot 19-for-27 at the line, while Penn shot an atrocious 17-for-29, which translates to a 59% free-throw percentage.
The ugliest moment came late in the second half when Power — who was otherwise terrific and finished with a season-high 26 points — airballed a freebie as part of an 0-for-2 trip to the line. Power did draw an impressive nine fouls for the evening.
Penn’s athletic advantage against Ivy opponents will generate plenty of opportunities at the line when January rolls around. But that advantage won’t mean much if free throws don’t go in.
Things are looking ugly at the rim.
Last season, Penn shot 53.4% on close-range two-point shots, according to BartTorvik.com, which ranked 326th nationally.
With the caveat that we are dealing with a small sample size of three games, the Quakers are now shooting 49.2% on close twos, per BartTorvik, which ranks 293rd.
The good news is that Mohammed’s athleticism and finishing have been as advertised. He was 3-for-4 at the rim on Wednesday, drew five fouls and logged a KenPom offensive rating of 117 points per 100 possessions.
But he needs help. Power is off to a strong start to the year, but he is shooting just 9-for-30 from two-point distance. Neither of Penn’s rotational bigs, Augustus Gerhart and Dalton Scantlebury, are taking a lot of shots.
As a result, Penn looks like a team struggling to get good looks when it gets into its half-court sets and can’t push the pace.