There is no sugarcoating it: It will take a truly special effort for Penn men’s basketball to pick up its first NCAA Tournament win since 1994 when it squares off with Illinois in Greenville, S.C. Thursday night.
The Vegas line opened with the Fighting Illini favored by 20.5 points and was quickly bet up to a 23.5-or-24.5-point spread, depending on where you looked. For context, the biggest outright Round of 64 upset ever by Vegas odds was Fairleigh Dickinson’s triumph as a No. 16 seed over No. 1 Purdue as a 23.5-point underdog in 2023. Purdue was ranked sixth in KenPom at the time, while FDU was ranked 299th.
For the Quakers, the KenPom gap between themselves and Illinois is not nearly as daunting. Illinois is No. 7, while Penn now sits at No. 150 thanks to its Sunday upset of Yale in the Ivy League title game. That comes with the caveat that the gap between the top teams in college basketball and the rest of the sport has grown dramatically in recent years due to transfer portal movement.
There will be plenty more to discuss ahead of Thursday, but to tide you over, here’s an early look at the matchup: